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NBA

A win model trained only on pre-2014 games, then used to predict each later regular season from its four factors. The frozen forecast (pink) tracks the actual home win % (blue) through the…

How I Know This Isn't Made Up

NBA
Regular-season home win rate minus road win rate in 1984–2001 (light blue) and 2002–26 (darker blue). Every franchise with at least 400 home games in both halves of the record saw its home…

The Altitude Exception

NBA
Two panels translating the per-game home advantage into a best-of-seven series advantage via simulation. Left: a single-game home win rate (x-axis) maps to a much smaller series win rate…

The Playoffs Are Different (and the Same)

NBA
Left: league average attendance per game vs. regular-season home win %, 2000–2026, with crowds holding near their record while home court advantage keeps falling. Right: 2020–21…

The Usual Suspects

NBA
Home (blue) and away (red) offensive-rebound rate per season, the share of available offensive boards each side grabs. The two lines converge and cross: the home team’s edge on the…

The Glass and the Turnover Gap

NBA
The league’s three-point attempt rate (orange, right axis) climbing as the regular-season home win rate (blue, left axis) falls, across four decades. The two lines are near mirror images…

The Three-Point Suspect

NBA
The home free-throw-attempt edge per season, home minus away: regular season (blue) and playoffs (green) both slide toward zero across 40 years, with the 1994–95 hand-checking crackdown…

The Whistle

NBA
The playoff period averages show an earlier fall, a long middle plateau, and a further recent fall. Pale green traces annual playoff results; dark green horizontal segments show home wins…

Home Court Advantage Is Fading

NBA